Fall In Job Advertisements for 2009 - ANZ Survey

Published Mon, January 12 2009 4:10pm

The extended impact of the financial crisis of 2008 is now upon us. The media is today flooded with news of falls in the rate of job advertisements. The question is, are these job "cut-backs" necessary; how long will they last; and what are the ramifications for the wider economy.

Following is an except from The Age's Chris Zappone as cited on Monday 12 January 2009:

Job ads at recession level

Chris Zappone
January 12, 2009 - 11:30AM

The number of jobs advertised dropped by nearly a third last year, putting the number of new positions added by businesses at "recession levels."

The ANZ job advertisement survey showed that for the year to December the total number of job ads fell 30%.

For the month, they slumped 9.7%, the lowest since 1999, according to data from Bloomberg.

The increasingly weak reading on newspaper and online figures point to a higher unemployment rate this year as expected drops in consumer demand, business confidence and business activity take their toll. The December plunge is the eighth consecutive contraction of the gauge.

Last month there were an average of 190,661 job ads in print and online per week, down from an average of 211,199 in November. Job ads in trend terms edged down 5% in December, or 23.4% for the year.

"The rate of decline in job advertising intensified in the month of December, providing further evidence that the demand for new labour across the Australian economy is now at recession levels," ANZ head of Australian economics Warren Hogan said in a statement.

Newspaper job advertising plummeted 13.9% in December to an average of about 10,100 a week, dragging down annual growth in the reading by more than half, Mr Hogan said.

Worst since 1975

"This is the weakest annual rate of growth in newspaper job advertising since the survey began in 1975, including both the economic recessions experienced in 1982 and 1991," said Mr Hogan.

Internet job ads were off by 9.5% in December to an average of 180,500 per week, 28.1% lower than a year ago.

Analysts will get a more accurate picture of the job market when December unemployment figures are released on Thursday.

Economists foresee the jobless rate rising to 4.5% with 20,000 jobs lost, up from 4.4% as a slackening pace of business triggers more positions to be trimmed.

The ANZ bank predicts the economy shed 21,000 jobs in December alone, pushing the jobless rate to 4.6%, a 22-month high. During 2009, the bank expects the rate to rise to 6%.

Signs of slowing economic activity abound, both in Australia and abroad.

In recent months, ANZ, which publishes the survey, GM Holden, Don's Smallgoods and HP EDS have all announced plans to reduce staff.

Last week, a shock drop in building approvals along with a halving of the trade surplus, led several economists to pare their GDP growth expectations for the final quarter of 2008.

Overseas, in the US payrolls dropped by 524,000 positions in December, outpacing analysts' expectations by 24,000.

Too optimistic

In Australia, ANZ is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise to 6% in 2009, up from the current rate of 4.4%, Mr Hogan said.

The risk to this forecast remains skewed towards a worse outcome, particularly if labour shedding or corporate failures intensify.

Mr Hogan said the Federal Government's unemployment forecast of 5% by June 2009 followed by "modest" employment growth in 2009-10 was "too optimistic".

"We expect to see confirmation of deteriorating labour market conditions with the release of the December Labour Force report this Thursday."

All states down

Western Australia, where the white hot resources economy faces a weaker outlook, led the newspaper declines, falling 22.8% in December.

Lower demand for iron ore from Asia and crumbling minerals prices have dashed expansion plans for Australian miners and forced them to delay new hiring or eliminate positions.

Chinese iron ore customers will reportedly seek to pay 40% less than last year, as global commodities prices retreat in the face of sharply lower outlooks for growth.

After WA, Victorian job ads followed, where newspaper job advertisements dropped 18.2% in December, while South Australia gave up 17.2% over the same period.

Newspaper job ads in Queensland were down 10.5%.

Only the Northern Territory enjoyed a gain in December, with newspaper ads up 7.5%, "partly unwinding the sharp fall in November", ANZ said.

Cited: http://business.theage.com.au/business/job-ads-at-recession-level-20090112-7eq8.html at Monday 12th January 2009

Jobs4Careers:

Throughout the last 12 months, Jobs4Careers (the leading source for Australian Pharmacy Jobs), has seen demand for new pharmacy employees remain steady. Medici Capital's Frank Sirianni commented that empirical evidence suggests that pharmacy remains a strong industry in times of economic downturn. The current level of demand for pharmacy positions on the website suggests that pharmacy employment is not being effected as dramatically as other industries.

1 Comments
Andrew Sirianni
10 years ago

Jobs4Careers Update:

Currently, Jobs4Careers has over 410 Pharmacy jobs listed on the site:
http://www.jobs4careers.com.au/job/searchresults.php?keywords=&titles=false&professionID=0&jobtypeID=0&city=&state=&pcode=&radius=&page=1&nbr=20

Demand for pharmacy positions appears to have remained strong in the current environment.


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